Model notes
The Retaliation Simulation
The current model is an artillery exchange between two sides. It is a toy perception game, not a validated model of conflict escalation.
Launch timing
Each side has its own launch frequency. The browser samples launch waiting times from an exponential distribution with that rate, so the firing pattern is stochastic rather than perfectly periodic.
Explosion sizes
Explosion sizes are sampled independently for each launch. If a side has mean mu and variance sigma squared, the unbounded draw is normally distributed with those parameters and then clipped to a positive display range so the canvas visualization remains usable.
Aggression score
In the current non-reactive model, the ground-truth aggression score is launch frequency times mean explosion size. Challenge mode reveals this expected intensity along with finite-round observed statistics, which can differ because launch timing and explosion sizes are random.
Current limitations
- The two sides do not yet react strategically to one another.
- Launch rate and explosion size are independent within each side.
- The visual target positions are cosmetic and do not accumulate damage.
- Retaliatory coupling after being hit has not been added yet.